Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | PAC +138 PEPP -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PAC +13 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -0.7 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -0.3 (+12.7) | 161.3 (-6.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -0.5 (+12.5) | 161.1 (-6.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -0.2 (+12.8) | 161.9 (-6.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -0.0 (+13.0) | 160.7 (-5.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | PAC 92 – 59 PEPP |
| Jan 5, 2026 | PAC 74 – 69 PEPP |
| Jan 26, 2025 | PEPP 60 – 44 PAC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PEPP 87 – 70 PAC |
| Mar 7, 2024 | PEPP 102 – 43 PAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 2-14 |
| Home | 7-10 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 81.8 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#198) | -0.6 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#200) | -0.81 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#190) | -0.61 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#248) | 0.465 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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