Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -500 ALST +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +14 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -11.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -8.6 (+5.4) | 139.1 (-21.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -9.1 (+4.9) | 136.2 (-18.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -9.5 (+4.5) | 135.1 (-17.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -9.1 (+4.9) | 135.5 (-17.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-2 | 5-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#252) | -12.7 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#265) | -2.29 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#277) | -2.75 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#239) | 0.408 (#340) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.