Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | IONA -1400 MRST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +19 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -19.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -17.3 (+1.7) | 139.0 (+28.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -16.7 (+2.3) | 137.3 (+29.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -16.8 (+2.2) | 137.0 (+30.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -17.9 (+1.1) | 136.5 (+30.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MRST 83 – 38 IONA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IONA 75 – 71 MRST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MRST 70 – 65 IONA |
| Mar 3, 2024 | IONA 71 – 64 MRST |
| Nov 30, 2023 | MRST 68 – 64 IONA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-10 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#62) | -7.3 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#85) | -1.50 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#90) | -1.85 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#37) | 0.434 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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