Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +2 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -2.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -0.6 (-2.6) | 134.2 (-12.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -1.9 (-3.9) | 133.6 (-11.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -0.7 (-2.7) | 136.0 (-14.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -0.1 (-2.1) | 137.7 (-15.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | RICH 82 – 70 GMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | GMU 64 – 60 RICH |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GMU 64 – 58 RICH |
| Mar 9, 2024 | GMU 64 – 46 RICH |
| Jan 13, 2024 | RICH 77 – 70 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 1-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#169) | 1.7 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#175) | 0.53 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#164) | 0.61 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#179) | 0.550 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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