Betting Lines
| Spread | GRAM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | GRAM -700 ALST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GRAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GRAM +20 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | GRAM -14.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GRAM -12.1 (+7.9) | 131.7 (-13.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GRAM -11.0 (+9.0) | 131.3 (-13.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GRAM -12.1 (+7.9) | 128.8 (-10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GRAM -12.3 (+7.7) | 130.5 (-12.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GRAM 65 – 63 ALST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GRAM 57 – 47 ALST |
| Mar 14, 2025 | ALST 64 – 62 GRAM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALST 59 – 47 GRAM |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GRAM 77 – 67 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-1 | 5-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.1 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#203) | -12.8 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#153) | -2.35 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#150) | -2.82 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#141) | 0.407 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GRAM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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