Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +8 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -3.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -1.9 (+9.9) | 154.6 (+21.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -1.3 (+9.3) | 151.2 (+24.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -1.7 (+9.7) | 155.1 (+20.9) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -1.8 (+9.8) | 155.1 (+20.9) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | CSU 82 – 74 UNM |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNM 80 – 70 CSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNM 87 – 65 CSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | UNM 76 – 68 CSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 74 – 61 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 80.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#111) | 10.3 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#144) | 1.66 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#139) | 2.07 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#151) | 0.572 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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