Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +17 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -2.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -2.3 (-19.3) | 136.3 (+2.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -0.0 (-17.0) | 135.5 (+3.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -2.0 (-19.0) | 136.7 (+2.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -2.4 (-19.4) | 137.3 (+1.7) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#91) | 3.9 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#59) | 0.03 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#65) | 0.27 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#25) | 0.506 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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