Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -185 DUKE +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +5 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -2.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -1.9 (-6.9) | 140.9 (-21.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.9 (-6.9) | 139.8 (-20.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -2.1 (-7.1) | 141.4 (-22.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -1.7 (-6.7) | 141.3 (-22.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | DUKE 76 – 61 UNC |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNC 71 – 68 DUKE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | DUKE 74 – 71 UNC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DUKE 82 – 69 UNC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | DUKE 87 – 70 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#40) | 11.7 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#46) | 2.33 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#40) | 2.75 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#39) | 0.604 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.