Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HALL +24 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -7.3 (-31.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -7.3 (-31.3) | 142.1 (-2.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -7.4 (-31.4) | 139.5 (+0.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -6.8 (-30.8) | 141.3 (-1.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -6.5 (-30.5) | 143.0 (-3.0) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | HALL 87 – 80 PROV |
| Dec 19, 2025 | HALL 72 – 67 PROV |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PROV 69 – 67 HALL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | PROV 91 – 85 HALL |
| Jan 24, 2024 | PROV 67 – 63 HALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#34) | 7.9 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#39) | 1.13 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#27) | 1.39 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#61) | 0.535 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | HALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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