Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +15 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -6.4 (-21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -6.7 (-21.7) | 136.5 (-5.5) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -6.7 (-21.7) | 136.4 (-5.4) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -6.1 (-21.1) | 136.3 (-5.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -6.4 (-21.4) | 136.6 (-5.6) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ISU 72 – 69 BAY |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ISU 70 – 60 BAY |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ISU 74 – 55 BAY |
| Mar 16, 2024 | ISU 76 – 62 BAY |
| Feb 4, 2024 | BAY 70 – 68 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 62.6 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#12) | 12.9 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#7) | 2.05 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.64 (#6) | 2.64 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#10) | 0.551 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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