Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UCD -138 LBSU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +1 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -3.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -3.0 (-2.0) | 157.2 (+27.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -2.1 (-1.1) | 155.6 (+29.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -2.9 (-1.9) | 156.3 (+28.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -2.6 (-1.6) | 156.0 (+29.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UCD 76 – 70 LBSU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | UCD 71 – 54 LBSU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCD 73 – 65 LBSU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | LBSU 84 – 73 UCD |
| Mar 17, 2024 | LBSU 74 – 70 UCD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#144) | 1.1 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#182) | 0.09 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#163) | 0.34 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#164) | 0.525 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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