Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -4.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -1.2 (+10.2) | 133.5 (+15.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -2.4 (+11.4) | 133.2 (+15.8) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -2.0 (+11.0) | 135.2 (+13.8) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -1.8 (+10.8) | 135.6 (+13.4) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | TENN 72 – 62 AUB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | TENN 77 – 69 AUB |
| Mar 15, 2025 | TENN 70 – 65 AUB |
| Jan 26, 2025 | AUB 53 – 51 TENN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TENN 92 – 84 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 57.9 |
| Massey | 11.9 (#30) | 19.8 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#43) | 2.44 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#43) | 3.14 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#29) | 0.613 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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