All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Mid-American Conference · University Arena (MI) · March 4, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread WMU -6.5 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Over
Money WMU -300 / CMU +300
Model Predictions
Spread Total WMU win
Actual WMU +16 146 Won
Massey WMU -4.4 (+11.6) — —
Massey Totals — 137.1 (+8.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 48% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 53% ✓
Baseline Plus ML WMU -2.8 (+13.2) 137.8 (+8.2) 66% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ WMU -2.7 (+13.3) 136.9 (+9.1) 69% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML WMU -2.3 (+13.7) 138.8 (+7.2) 62% ✓
Baseline ML WMU -2.1 (+13.9) 140.4 (+5.6) 68% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 21, 2026 CMU 83 – 70 WMU
Jan 24, 2026 WMU 77 – 65 CMU
Feb 22, 2025 CMU 86 – 57 WMU
Jan 26, 2025 CMU 73 – 52 WMU
Feb 18, 2024 CMU 69 – 42 WMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WMU CMU
Overall 8-23 10-21
Conference 4-14 5-13
Home 7-7 6-8
Away 1-15 3-12
Neutral 0-1 1-1
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak W1 L5
Avg Pts For 68.3 64.7
Avg Pts Against 76.5 74.0
Massey -9.0 (#319) -9.8 (#329)
Bradley-Terry -2.30 (#353) -1.61 (#318)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.57 (#347) -1.98 (#320)
RPI 0.388 (#355) 0.418 (#327)
Shooting & Four Factors WMU CMU
FG% 41.9% 40.8%
3PT% 31.4% 29.8%
REB / G 35.5 34.6
OREB / G 11.8 11.1
AST / TO 0.90 0.66
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.5% 46.4%
TOV% 19.5% 23.2%
ORB% 32.8% 31.2%
FT Rate 20.6% 25.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 55.0% 51.7%
Opp TOV% 14.3% 19.3%
DRB% 71.7% 67.6%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 28.5%

Game Analysis

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