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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–33 on winners spread MAE 9.4 82 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
East Carolina @ Tulane +10.8 154.0 84% 78–81 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver -0.5 148.6 48% 83–68 ✓
Murray State @ Drake +11.0 143.3 84% 62–74 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis -0.9 136.4 47% 61–65 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo +9.1 155.9 80% 63–68 ✓
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan +4.0 137.2 64% 65–81 ✓
VMI @ Chattanooga +12.4 149.3 87% 72–92 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Sam Houston +13.2 136.0 88% 54–72 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State +0.5 144.0 52% 65–58 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah Valley +7.3 144.4 75% 69–113 ✓
Bowling Green @ Ohio +11.0 156.9 84% 58–92 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford +4.1 141.2 64% 69–78 ✓
Portland @ BYU +7.2 153.2 74% 71–82 ✓
California Baptist @ Southern Utah +7.4 145.8 75% 71–81 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Tech +1.6 146.3 56% 71–61 ✗
Omaha @ Kansas City +1.5 134.4 55% 73–61 ✗
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +1.1 117.7 54% 51–54 ✓
UT Arlington @ Seattle U +8.9 130.9 79% 56–80 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee Tech -2.0 154.3 43% 63–78 ✗
New Mexico @ Colorado State -2.9 158.0 40% 84–92 ✗
Pacific @ San Francisco +4.7 155.9 66% 63–80 ✓
Alabama @ Texas A&M -4.8 153.1 33% 61–67 ✗
Iowa State @ Baylor +5.9 134.1 70% 73–58 ✗
Seton Hall @ Providence +7.1 139.4 74% 82–58 ✗
Mercer @ Furman +8.8 142.1 79% 58–73 ✓
Elon @ William & Mary +0.8 136.0 53% 51–73 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +6.9 140.7 73% 62–66 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Princeton +5.4 150.2 69% 69–77 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan State +4.9 138.6 67% 78–84 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss +1.5 137.0 55% 78–61 ✗
George Mason @ Richmond +1.9 131.9 57% 62–60 ✗
Bryant @ New Hampshire -2.7 143.0 40% 60–67 ✗
UAB @ Charlotte -1.7 138.8 44% 93–91 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina -1.2 137.6 46% 55–61 ✗
St. John's @ Marquette +14.1 163.3 90% 94–96 ✓
Kansas State @ West Virginia +3.6 150.6 63% 81–89 ✓
Tennessee @ Auburn -5.0 127.3 32% 70–79 ✗
Louisville @ Virginia +20.2 125.5 97% 60–75 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas +5.0 143.4 68% 88–79 ✗
Columbia @ Cornell +19.4 159.0 96% 73–87 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth -3.4 131.6 38% 82–87 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ UTEP -1.1 132.8 46% 65–77 ✗
Siena @ Saint Peter's -4.5 126.1 34% 72–73 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Manhattan +2.5 133.6 59% 74–69 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ La Salle +5.1 141.5 68% 76–73 ✗
Duquesne @ Fordham +0.2 143.7 51% 60–87 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina -0.7 139.7 47% 57–69 ✗
Monmouth @ Drexel +12.3 128.8 87% 45–64 ✓
Campbell @ Radford +3.0 131.3 61% 72–71 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Boston College +3.6 133.2 63% 73–65 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Massachusetts +3.2 137.6 61% 60–71 ✓
TCU @ Oklahoma -0.7 139.5 48% 60–74 ✗
Troy @ James Madison +3.4 145.9 62% 72–75 ✓
Western Kentucky @ North Texas +10.7 121.7 84% 33–67 ✓
Florida International @ Rice +5.2 158.4 68% 90–83 ✗
Indiana State @ Bradley +2.6 141.6 59% 70–71 ✓
Niagara @ Canisius +3.3 133.8 62% 68–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri +8.9 150.6 79% 77–82 ✓
Kansas @ Texas +4.0 149.1 64% 59–75 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +11.8 142.4 86% 54–85 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M +6.5 136.8 72% 74–78 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon +7.4 140.5 75% 68–73 ✓
Florida State @ Virginia Tech +13.8 149.9 89% 60–82 ✓
San José State @ Air Force +0.2 126.9 51% 63–61 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +4.4 160.2 66% 92–93 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +4.2 130.6 65% 70–91 ✓
VCU @ George Washington -6.3 147.5 28% 74–68 ✓
Wake Forest @ Syracuse +0.4 156.4 52% 63–72 ✓
UNLV @ Nevada +8.8 142.1 79% 69–67 ✗
Utah @ Colorado +3.1 132.0 61% 60–69 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Miami +5.7 153.6 70% 76–78 ✓
Texas State @ Marshall +9.5 145.9 81% 71–68 ✗
Chattanooga @ Samford +3.7 152.7 63% 85–82 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +4.3 128.7 65% 60–71 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Drake +4.8 126.9 67% 52–65 ✓
Stony Brook @ North Carolina A&T +2.3 137.6 58% 76–61 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech +3.3 136.6 62% 71–68 ✗
LSU @ Florida +11.6 137.0 86% 67–79 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Southern +8.0 141.5 77% 68–65 ✗
Alcorn State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -0.6 143.7 48% 63–58 ✓
Alabama State @ Grambling +14.3 126.3 90% 49–69 ✓
Duke @ North Carolina +1.7 141.4 56% 62–57 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.