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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–18 on winners spread MAE 8.9 58 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Wichita State @ Houston	+21.0	126.1	97%	66–83	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate	+16.8	144.4	94%	73–92	✓
American University @ Navy	+8.2	127.6	77%	52–51	✗
Lafayette @ Lehigh	+2.7	125.9	60%	71–64	✗
Valparaiso @ Murray State	+2.2	146.6	58%	50–78	✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky	+9.2	136.0	80%	74–81	✓
Lipscomb @ Kennesaw State	+5.0	147.9	67%	71–80	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Liberty	+14.6	136.7	91%	73–79	✓
UCF @ Temple	-2.5	135.8	41%	55–57	✗
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech	+7.7	146.9	76%	76–77	✓
Manhattan @ Siena	+10.5	139.0	83%	67–66	✗
Rider @ Saint Peter's	-3.6	127.3	37%	73–60	✓
Marist @ Iona	+19.4	134.1	96%	74–93	✓
Michigan @ Illinois	+5.8	145.2	70%	87–91	✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota	-12.1	122.0	14%	74–75	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State	-1.2	159.3	46%	91–83	✓
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield	-1.7	136.0	44%	82–92	✗
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State	-8.1	153.0	23%	71–64	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State	-5.5	133.1	31%	64–58	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State	+9.1	164.5	80%	66–71	✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee	+0.3	161.2	51%	70–87	✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State	+6.7	130.3	73%	70–75	✓
Coppin State @ Morgan State	+8.9	157.4	79%	77–65	✗
Middle Tennessee @ North Texas	+7.7	119.5	76%	50–64	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Rice	-10.2	155.6	18%	103–74	✓
Charlotte @ UTSA	-7.9	133.1	24%	73–78	✗
UL Monroe @ Georgia Southern	+5.2	131.6	68%	57–66	✓
Alabama A&M @ Grambling	+10.8	132.4	84%	48–60	✓
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State	-5.6	139.8	31%	70–60	✓
Arizona State @ UCLA	+13.9	132.8	90%	61–79	✓
Purdue @ Wisconsin	-4.9	124.2	33%	63–61	✓
San Diego @ Portland	+2.6	165.0	59%	74–92	✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+2.5	143.8	59%	67–63	✗
Memphis @ SMU	-8.2	154.3	23%	81–62	✓
Alabama State @ Southern	+11.6	138.1	85%	52–66	✓
Stanford @ Oregon State	-3.6	127.3	37%	83–60	✓
Western Kentucky @ UTEP	+2.5	136.1	59%	73–68	✗
Norfolk State @ Howard	-0.5	147.2	48%	67–87	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis	+1.6	141.5	56%	89–86	✗
UIC @ Missouri State	+7.8	131.5	76%	57–74	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State	+12.0	142.8	86%	61–77	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge	-7.5	122.2	25%	81–55	✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside	+0.3	145.2	51%	75–65	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin	-2.3	151.5	42%	75–81	✗
Arizona @ USC	-0.9	158.8	47%	87–81	✓
Washington State @ Washington	-1.0	134.0	46%	93–84	✓
California @ Oregon	+17.9	128.8	95%	51–84	✓
Pepperdine @ Pacific	-1.1	165.4	46%	71–84	✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville	+8.3	148.2	78%	66–75	✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley	+10.6	133.0	83%	66–72	✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois	+7.9	152.6	77%	66–85	✓
Monmouth @ Hampton	+2.9	141.6	61%	100–64	✗
Gardner-Webb @ South Carolina Upstate	-4.8	130.5	33%	76–77	✗
Indiana State @ Belmont	-3.1	155.9	39%	94–91	✓
The Citadel @ Mercer	+5.5	134.0	69%	41–66	✓
Campbell @ Longwood	+4.8	133.3	67%	81–68	✗
Akron @ Kent State	+6.7	132.4	73%	84–89	✓
Toledo @ Ball State	-2.0	162.3	43%	87–81	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.