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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–10 on winners spread MAE 9.5 42 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Auburn @ Alabama	+13.5	150.1	89%	85–90	✓
DePaul @ UConn	+20.6	148.4	97%	59–88	✓
Maryland @ Ohio State	-0.4	139.3	49%	62–73	✗
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky	+10.1	146.3	82%	68–66	✗
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame	-5.0	140.5	32%	81–88	✗
Long Island University @ Merrimack	+15.6	128.3	92%	76–91	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+9.1	146.7	80%	75–83	✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis	+3.3	144.5	62%	69–83	✓
Wagner @ Sacred Heart	+1.7	129.0	56%	55–67	✓
Tulsa @ South Florida	+14.6	146.9	91%	56–72	✓
Richmond @ Saint Joseph's	+0.9	140.8	53%	67–83	✓
Massachusetts @ Duquesne	+9.2	145.4	80%	79–88	✓
George Washington @ Davidson	+7.6	153.8	75%	75–70	✗
Fordham @ George Mason	+4.3	137.2	65%	58–64	✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State	+6.1	152.7	71%	65–84	✓
Sam Houston @ Stephen F. Austin	-1.9	133.6	43%	64–59	✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas State	+7.7	139.7	76%	69–85	✓
Presbyterian @ Campbell	+7.5	129.6	75%	63–68	✓
Lamar @ Nicholls	+13.7	143.3	89%	60–64	✓
SE Louisiana @ Houston Christian	-4.6	165.4	34%	80–64	✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley	+14.1	133.7	90%	59–78	✓
LSU New Orleans @ McNeese	+4.8	149.9	67%	73–80	✓
Georgetown @ Creighton	+20.5	146.2	97%	59–99	✓
Texas @ TCU	-0.1	148.4	50%	73–75	✗
Chicago State @ Gonzaga	+24.8	152.3	99%	65–104	✓
Tulane @ East Carolina	-4.5	154.0	34%	68–83	✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ East Texas A&M	-3.4	146.0	38%	93–88	✓
Incarnate Word @ Northwestern State	+13.1	142.1	88%	64–81	✓
Penn State @ Northwestern	+4.3	133.4	65%	68–65	✗
Missouri @ LSU	-4.3	151.0	35%	81–76	✓
Rhode Island @ Loyola Chicago	+2.0	134.2	57%	79–77	✗
Grand Canyon @ Southern Utah	+5.8	152.8	70%	83–78	✗
Seattle U @ Utah Tech	+1.2	144.7	54%	56–93	✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville	+1.5	152.0	56%	54–68	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ California Baptist	+8.9	145.8	79%	70–88	✓
Utah State @ UNLV	-1.6	151.9	44%	91–66	✓
App State @ South Alabama	+4.6	128.0	66%	61–68	✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa	+3.2	137.4	61%	62–75	✓
Arkansas State @ Troy	+9.3	131.2	80%	59–63	✓
Evansville @ Indiana State	+19.4	146.0	96%	58–97	✓
Texas State @ Old Dominion	+3.4	128.8	62%	65–36	✗
Boston University @ Army	+4.7	140.8	67%	69–71	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.