We live on blood / We are Sparta F.C "Theme from Sparta FC" - The Fall
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–10 on winners spread MAE 8.1 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Clemson @ Virginia +6.2 129.5 71% 57–64 ✓
Iowa @ Indiana +6.7 159.9 73% 90–68 ✗
Bucknell @ American University +4.9 132.0 67% 59–64 ✓
Holy Cross @ Loyola Maryland +5.2 137.2 68% 69–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris +16.0 134.9 93% 64–67 ✓
Green Bay @ Wright State +23.1 145.8 98% 57–77 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy +5.3 152.0 68% 68–81 ✓
Bellarmine @ Liberty +17.4 124.9 94% 56–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky +7.8 153.9 76% 48–73 ✓
Queens University @ Kennesaw State +7.7 153.8 76% 66–67 ✓
Lipscomb @ Stetson +3.9 152.9 64% 83–70 ✗
NC State @ Duke +5.8 141.9 70% 67–71 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse +8.5 141.2 78% 96–76 ✗
Boston College @ Wake Forest +11.0 146.6 84% 71–69 ✗
NJIT @ New Hampshire +6.2 131.2 71% 58–59 ✓
UMBC @ Binghamton -0.4 146.5 48% 70–67 ✓
Bryant @ Maine -1.4 151.2 45% 64–66 ✗
UAlbany @ Vermont +17.7 140.4 95% 61–79 ✓
Florida @ Georgia -4.8 139.9 33% 77–67 ✓
Saint Louis @ VCU +6.9 141.0 73% 67–79 ✓
La Salle @ Dayton +14.6 132.3 91% 53–77 ✓
Toledo @ Central Michigan -12.1 151.6 13% 99–65 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green +6.0 159.3 71% 68–88 ✓
Ohio @ Kent State +10.3 143.6 83% 75–82 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Western Michigan +1.4 148.3 55% 77–62 ✗
Ball State @ Akron +6.8 138.3 73% 83–87 ✓
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois +0.9 153.5 53% 85–75 ✗
Georgia State @ Texas State +3.2 128.8 61% 76–81 ✓
Villanova @ Seton Hall +3.2 126.4 61% 76–72 ✗
Texas Tech @ Kansas +10.3 145.2 83% 63–67 ✓
Arkansas @ Tennessee +9.4 130.1 80% 57–75 ✓
San Diego State @ Boise State +1.8 132.0 57% 60–66 ✓
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss -4.5 135.8 34% 69–61 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Louisville -11.1 143.8 16% 71–54 ✓
Michigan State @ Nebraska -2.6 131.8 40% 80–67 ✓
South Carolina @ Mississippi State +17.3 122.0 94% 68–74 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico +12.8 139.0 88% 80–94 ✓
Colorado State @ San José State +3.0 139.4 61% 46–63 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +0.0 156.0 50% 72–70 ✗
Xavier @ Providence +2.5 160.5 59% 94–89 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.