Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SJSU -150 CSU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +17 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -3.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -4.0 (+13.0) | 138.6 (-29.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -2.4 (+14.6) | 133.1 (-24.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -3.2 (+13.8) | 139.9 (-30.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -3.4 (+13.6) | 139.3 (-30.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | CSU 85 – 73 SJSU |
| Feb 8, 2026 | CSU 65 – 57 SJSU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | CSU 83 – 56 SJSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | CSU 72 – 50 SJSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | CSU 72 – 62 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#110) | 4.2 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#81) | 0.34 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#80) | 0.44 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#89) | 0.517 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 5.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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