Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -188 XAV +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +5 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -2.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.3 (+22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -1.9 (-6.9) | 159.0 (+24.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -2.8 (-7.8) | 158.4 (+24.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.7 (-6.7) | 158.7 (+24.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.9 (-6.9) | 158.8 (+24.2) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#28) | 13.3 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.07 (#33) | 2.25 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#22) | 3.23 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#55) | 0.599 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 39.6% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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