That's where you'll find me, along with the lovers muggers and thieves - but they're cool people. "Dirty Water" - The Standells
Texas State Bobcats
81 76
FINAL Neutral Conference Sun Belt
Georgia State Panthers
Sun Belt Conference · Pensacola Bay Center (Neutral) · March 1, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TXST -4.5 Home covered
O/U 131.5 Over
Money TXST -225 / GAST +170
Model Predictions
Spread Total TXST win
Actual TXST +5 157 Won
Massey TXST -3.6 (+1.4)
Massey Totals 126.7 (+30.3)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 71%
Baseline Plus ML TXST -2.9 (+2.1) 134.8 (+22.2) 68%
Efficiency Plus ML TXST -3.3 (+1.7) 130.1 (+26.9) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML TXST -3.2 (+1.8) 134.1 (+22.9) 65%
Baseline ML TXST -3.1 (+1.9) 134.9 (+22.1) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 16, 2025 TXST 9480 GAST
Feb 24, 2024 TXST 6859 GAST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TXST GAST
Overall 16-19 10-21
Conference 6-12 3-15
Home 4-10 10-9
Away 7-7 0-11
Neutral 5-2 0-1
Last 5 1-4 0-5
Streak L1 L8
Avg Pts For 65.2 65.1
Avg Pts Against 66.8 70.9
Massey -2.5 (#215) -6.1 (#276)
Bradley-Terry -0.50 (#227) -1.35 (#298)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.66 (#228) -1.53 (#291)
RPI 0.472 (#238) 0.425 (#320)
Shooting & Four Factors TXST GAST
FG% 43.5% 40.9%
3PT% 31.1% 29.1%
REB / G 32.1 33.2
OREB / G 10.4 10.4
AST / TO 0.83 0.79
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.5% 45.4%
TOV% 18.1% 19.6%
ORB% 31.6% 30.2%
FT Rate 24.1% 23.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.9% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 17.7%
DRB% 71.8% 70.6%
Opp FT Rate 29.6% 24.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.