Betting Lines
| Spread | TXST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | TXST -225 GAST +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -3.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -2.9 (+2.1) | 134.8 (+22.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -3.3 (+1.7) | 130.1 (+26.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -3.2 (+1.8) | 134.1 (+22.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -3.1 (+1.9) | 134.9 (+22.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | TXST 94 – 80 GAST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | TXST 68 – 59 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 4-10 | 10-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#215) | -6.1 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#227) | -1.35 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#228) | -1.53 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#238) | 0.425 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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