Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -600 AUB +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -12.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -12.1 (-7.1) | 152.6 (+22.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.0 (-6.0) | 155.0 (+20.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -12.0 (-7.0) | 154.7 (+20.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -12.1 (-7.1) | 153.1 (+21.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ALA 96 – 92 AUB |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALA 93 – 91 AUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AUB 94 – 85 ALA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-0 | 14-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 20.9 (#2) | 11.6 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.56 (#1) | 1.91 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#3) | 2.33 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#1) | 0.598 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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