Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
Big 12 Conference · Bramlage Coliseum · March 2, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread KSU -7.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money KSU -300 / OU +225
Model Predictions
Spread Total KSU win
Actual KSU +16 154 Won
Massey KSU -8.2 (+7.8) — —
Massey Totals — 140.2 (+13.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 87% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 86% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML KSU -7.4 (+8.6) 139.8 (+14.2) 78% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ KSU -7.4 (+8.6) 137.6 (+16.4) 81% ✓
Baseline Plus ML KSU -6.7 (+9.3) 138.8 (+15.2) 79% ✓
Baseline ML KSU -7.1 (+8.9) 139.4 (+14.6) 80% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 31, 2024 OU 73 – 53 KSU
Feb 15, 2023 OU 79 – 65 KSU
Mar 5, 2022 OU 78 – 71 KSU
Jan 2, 2022 OU 71 – 69 KSU
Feb 24, 2021 KSU 62 – 57 OU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings KSU OU
Overall 26-10 15-17
Conference 11-7 5-13
Home 16-1 9-7
Away 4-7 2-8
Neutral 6-2 4-2
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.2 67.7
Avg Pts Against 69.9 67.5
Massey 13.5 (#18) 8.8 (#63)
Bradley-Terry 2.82 (#9) 1.51 (#63)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.28 (#12) 2.19 (#52)
RPI 0.594 (#29) 0.535 (#114)
Shooting & Four Factors KSU OU
FG% 45.1% 46.5%
3PT% 33.7% 35.3%
REB / G 35.5 32.6
OREB / G 10.3 7.1
AST / TO 1.19 0.97
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 53.1%
TOV% 19.6% 20.2%
ORB% 30.8% 23.7%
FT Rate 28.8% 21.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.0% 48.0%
Opp TOV% 21.0% 15.8%
DRB% 70.4% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.3% 21.7%

Game Analysis

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