Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -2500 DEP +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +29 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -20.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -18.3 (+10.7) | 149.8 (-2.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -17.2 (+11.8) | 151.3 (-4.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -17.1 (+11.9) | 149.9 (-2.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -18.3 (+10.7) | 149.9 (-2.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CONN 72 – 60 DEP |
| Dec 21, 2025 | CONN 72 – 54 DEP |
| Jan 30, 2025 | CONN 72 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 1, 2025 | CONN 81 – 68 DEP |
| Feb 15, 2024 | CONN 101 – 65 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#5) | 0.7 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#16) | -0.04 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#9) | 0.10 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#37) | 0.476 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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