Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -125 NOLA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -5.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -2.9 (+4.1) | 147.4 (+5.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -2.4 (+4.6) | 145.9 (+7.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -3.9 (+3.1) | 149.0 (+4.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -3.3 (+3.7) | 150.8 (+2.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-8 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-14 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 80.1 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#338) | -13.0 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#345) | -1.98 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#354) | -2.43 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#293) | 0.415 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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