Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UNI -200 ILST +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +13 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -3.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -2.3 (+10.7) | 138.2 (-1.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -3.3 (+9.7) | 134.5 (+2.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -2.0 (+11.0) | 138.7 (-1.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -1.9 (+11.1) | 141.2 (-4.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNI 74 – 52 ILST |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ILST 71 – 69 UNI |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILST 59 – 54 UNI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNI 68 – 65 ILST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UNI 85 – 84 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#217) | -5.7 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#228) | -1.05 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#225) | -1.32 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#226) | 0.439 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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