Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | INST -2500 EVAN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +39 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | INST -18.6 (+20.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -15.9 (+23.1) | 145.8 (+9.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -15.6 (+23.4) | 144.7 (+10.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -16.1 (+22.9) | 144.7 (+10.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -16.6 (+22.4) | 144.8 (+10.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | INST 84 – 63 EVAN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | EVAN 72 – 69 INST |
| Feb 20, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 74 INST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | INST 66 – 62 EVAN |
| Feb 29, 2024 | INST 85 – 67 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 1-19 |
| Home | 11-4 | 3-10 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#93) | -12.9 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#144) | -2.04 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#140) | -2.49 (#343) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#140) | 0.406 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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