Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV +120 USU -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +25 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -1.6 (-23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -1.2 (-23.8) | 147.7 (+9.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -1.1 (-23.9) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -1.8 (-23.2) | 146.2 (+10.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -1.1 (-23.9) | 148.7 (+8.3) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#86) | 11.3 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#85) | 2.09 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#77) | 2.64 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#93) | 0.613 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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