Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -450 ARST +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -9.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (-7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -8.1 (-4.1) | 136.2 (-14.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -7.3 (-3.3) | 134.2 (-12.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -8.4 (-4.4) | 136.5 (-14.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -8.5 (-4.5) | 138.4 (-16.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-8 |
| Away | 7-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#124) | -6.8 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#138) | -1.26 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#133) | -1.59 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#112) | 0.420 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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