Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -27.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +39 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -25.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -24.3 (+14.7) | 154.4 (+14.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -24.3 (+14.7) | 154.8 (+14.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -22.7 (+16.3) | 154.6 (+14.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -24.2 (+14.8) | 154.1 (+14.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 0-0 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-0 |
| Away | 7-2 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#8) | -6.1 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#5) | -1.45 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#5) | -1.82 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#3) | 0.441 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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