I'm going to Wichita, far from this opera for evermore. "Seven Nation Army" - The White Stripes
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–9 on winners spread MAE 7.6 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Butler @ Xavier +13.3 143.3 89% 66–78 ✓
Binghamton @ UMBC +7.6 146.3 76% 67–65 ✗
NJIT @ Vermont +15.8 137.5 92% 57–84 ✓
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +16.1 154.1 93% 80–96 ✓
Chicago State @ Fresno State +9.8 125.4 81% 72–108 ✓
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -3.4 138.7 38% 68–60 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Tech -8.9 145.5 21% 76–72 ✓
Iona @ Rider -6.2 142.1 29% 80–78 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist -3.9 137.5 36% 88–76 ✓
UConn @ Villanova -5.5 136.9 31% 71–59 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +3.8 146.2 64% 76–87 ✓
Yale @ Brown -6.7 134.5 27% 84–75 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech -1.8 155.4 44% 89–82 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.7 164.9 70% 50–70 ✓
California @ Oregon State +6.4 117.0 72% 66–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Clemson +11.4 142.1 85% 64–87 ✓
Davidson @ Rhode Island -1.0 136.8 46% 68–54 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana +6.2 143.8 71% 49–67 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +6.6 138.4 73% 67–66 ✗
Northeastern @ Delaware +5.4 137.5 69% 74–77 ✓
Mississippi State @ Vanderbilt -0.6 129.1 48% 72–77 ✗
Creighton @ DePaul -11.4 147.2 15% 84–70 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +3.6 142.2 63% 73–86 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine +15.6 132.1 92% 44–52 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara +3.4 126.2 62% 61–81 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota State +9.3 143.2 80% 55–63 ✓
Arizona @ UCLA +7.6 149.6 76% 73–82 ✓
Wyoming @ San Diego State +15.7 137.3 92% 50–67 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland State -0.7 162.5 47% 84–80 ✓
BYU @ Loyola Marymount -3.7 145.4 37% 73–63 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal Poly -5.8 126.9 30% 73–72 ✓
Arizona State @ USC +6.0 141.7 71% 65–68 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +2.7 152.1 60% 93–87 ✗
Houston @ Memphis -8.3 140.9 23% 67–65 ✓
Maryland @ Penn State +0.0 137.6 50% 64–65 ✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra +13.7 139.0 89% 46–94 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +8.5 138.0 78% 71–76 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Asheville +4.0 140.4 64% 73–77 ✓
Army @ Colgate +11.8 152.6 86% 74–91 ✓
Drake @ Bradley +0.6 132.0 52% 77–51 ✗
South Florida @ Wichita State +5.4 140.2 69% 49–69 ✓
Temple @ Tulane +5.1 155.2 68% 82–83 ✓
East Carolina @ UCF +13.7 133.4 89% 58–84 ✓
SMU @ Cincinnati +13.8 147.0 90% 74–97 ✓
Nebraska @ Iowa +11.1 153.2 84% 81–77 ✗
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington +0.3 123.7 51% 68–73 ✓
Liberty @ Kennesaw State -4.8 137.1 33% 66–67 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +10.7 152.1 83% 80–83 ✓
American University @ Lafayette +3.1 117.7 61% 76–84 ✓
Michigan @ Indiana +6.6 147.3 72% 73–75 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M +3.4 140.7 62% 79–78 ✗
South Alabama @ James Madison +0.9 143.2 53% 75–66 ✗
Stony Brook @ Charleston +18.9 141.5 96% 52–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.