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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–4 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
12 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Thomas
@
Western Illinois
|
-4.5 | 145.8 | 34% | 67–60 | ✓ |
Chattanooga
@
Wofford
|
-2.3 | 153.0 | 42% | 74–62 | ✓ |
Northern Arizona
@
Eastern Washington
|
+5.9 | 151.8 | 70% | 81–80 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Rutgers
|
+5.5 | 119.0 | 69% | 65–53 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Minnesota
|
-7.0 | 124.1 | 26% | 71–67 | ✓ |
LSU New Orleans
@
Houston Christian
|
-1.2 | 164.9 | 46% | 90–69 | ✓ |
Texas State
@
Louisiana
|
+6.0 | 140.9 | 71% | 58–64 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Towson
|
+4.8 | 138.2 | 67% | 60–86 | ✓ |
South Dakota
@
North Dakota State
|
+6.1 | 143.9 | 71% | 68–70 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
Montana State
|
+6.9 | 145.1 | 74% | 73–84 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Nicholls
|
+6.1 | 144.2 | 71% | 77–71 | ✗ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Hofstra
|
+6.9 | 134.7 | 74% | 79–73 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.