Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -240 SDAK +196 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -5.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -4.2 (-2.2) | 141.4 (-3.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -4.7 (-2.7) | 140.7 (-2.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -4.5 (-2.5) | 141.2 (-3.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -4.6 (-2.6) | 142.0 (-4.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#215) | -8.1 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#220) | -0.96 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#222) | -1.34 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#190) | 0.451 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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