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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–6 on winners spread MAE 7.2 22 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
South Alabama @ Louisiana	-0.1	143.3	50%	66–71	✗
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts	+10.7	155.5	83%	65–70	✓
Chattanooga @ Furman	+6.5	156.2	72%	79–88	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Youngstown State	+3.8	141.0	63%	75–63	✗
Idaho State @ Montana	+4.9	134.4	67%	74–83	✓
BYU @ Saint Mary's	+8.6	128.4	78%	69–76	✓
LSU New Orleans @ SE Louisiana	+7.5	159.1	75%	82–78	✗
Towson @ Charleston	+6.2	147.0	71%	72–77	✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State	+2.7	140.2	60%	89–79	✗
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee	-2.3	146.9	42%	93–80	✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State	+1.2	126.4	54%	64–70	✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga	+12.3	161.9	87%	73–84	✓
Massachusetts @ Richmond	+0.9	139.4	53%	38–71	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's	+3.5	144.5	63%	67–72	✓
Georgia Tech @ Florida State	-2.3	143.3	42%	61–60	✓
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist	+1.8	138.3	57%	62–69	✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle	-0.0	139.1	50%	56–73	✗
Louisville @ Boston College	+6.5	135.1	72%	62–80	✓
UT Arlington @ Grand Canyon	+7.7	132.1	76%	77–82	✓
Canisius @ Mount St. Mary's	-1.2	136.7	46%	66–67	✗
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell	+13.1	135.3	88%	64–75	✓
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+10.2	148.2	82%	63–80	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.