Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UL -125 USA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UL -0.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -1.1 (+3.9) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -1.5 (+3.5) | 137.5 (-0.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -0.8 (+4.2) | 139.6 (-2.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -0.9 (+4.1) | 139.1 (-2.1) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | UL 59 – 56 USA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USA 63 – 58 UL |
| Mar 1, 2025 | USA 65 – 42 UL |
| Feb 2, 2025 | USA 62 – 58 UL |
| Feb 4, 2024 | UL 80 – 60 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#97) | 4.8 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#73) | 0.30 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#74) | 0.61 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#43) | 0.515 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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