Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -200 TOW +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -7.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -6.7 (-1.7) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -5.2 (-0.2) | 145.4 (+3.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -6.2 (-1.2) | 146.3 (+2.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -6.0 (-1.0) | 147.8 (+1.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TOW 81 – 56 COFC |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TOW 61 – 52 COFC |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COFC 77 – 69 TOW |
| Mar 11, 2024 | COFC 61 – 56 TOW |
| Feb 24, 2024 | COFC 72 – 56 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-2 |
| Away | 11-2 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#61) | 2.0 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#30) | 0.46 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#35) | 0.56 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#40) | 0.521 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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