Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | GONZ -1400 SF +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -12.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -11.1 (-0.1) | 159.2 (-2.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -9.8 (+1.2) | 161.5 (-4.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -10.7 (+0.3) | 162.6 (-5.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -10.9 (+0.1) | 162.5 (-5.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 9-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.2 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#7) | 4.6 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#6) | 0.88 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#5) | 1.06 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#4) | 0.513 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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