Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | JOES +100 LUC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -3.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -2.7 (+2.3) | 142.6 (-3.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -2.1 (+2.9) | 141.4 (-2.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -2.7 (+2.3) | 142.6 (-3.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -2.4 (+2.6) | 143.7 (-4.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JOES 75 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | JOES 85 – 64 LUC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LUC 58 – 55 JOES |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JOES 93 – 57 LUC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | LUC 64 – 59 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#200) | -5.2 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#208) | -0.89 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#205) | -1.05 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#202) | 0.444 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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