Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -500 UTA +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +5 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -8.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -7.0 (-2.0) | 136.5 (+22.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -6.6 (-1.6) | 135.7 (+23.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -7.0 (-2.0) | 137.4 (+21.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -7.0 (-2.0) | 138.6 (+20.4) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | GCU 98 – 75 UTA |
| Feb 28, 2025 | GCU 85 – 71 UTA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GCU 82 – 75 UTA |
| Mar 17, 2024 | GCU 89 – 74 UTA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | GCU 67 – 61 UTA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#118) | -4.6 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#118) | -0.60 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#112) | -0.76 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#115) | 0.459 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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