Mount St. Mary's
Mountaineers
67
–
66
OT
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires MAAC
Canisius
Golden Griffins
Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MSM -133 CAN +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | CAN -1.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAN -1.4 (+2.4) | 134.1 (-1.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAN -1.3 (+2.3) | 132.9 (+0.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAN -1.1 (+2.1) | 135.1 (-2.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CAN -1.0 (+2.0) | 133.8 (-0.8) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | MSM 68 – 47 CAN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | MSM 78 – 68 CAN |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MSM 73 – 66 CAN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | CAN 77 – 61 MSM |
| Mar 2, 2024 | CAN 61 – 56 MSM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.8 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#273) | -4.9 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#291) | -1.29 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#295) | -1.39 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#277) | 0.463 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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