Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -300 BYU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +7 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -8.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -6.7 (+0.3) | 131.1 (+13.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -6.1 (+0.9) | 129.2 (+15.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -7.1 (-0.1) | 131.5 (+13.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -7.1 (-0.1) | 132.7 (+12.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2023 | SMC 71 – 65 BYU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | SMC 57 – 56 BYU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | SMC 69 – 64 BYU |
| Jan 9, 2022 | BYU 52 – 43 SMC |
| Feb 28, 2021 | BYU 65 – 51 SMC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-2 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#11) | 7.6 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#16) | 0.80 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#13) | 1.25 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#8) | 0.530 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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