Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -200 IDST +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -5.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -4.9 (+4.1) | 134.6 (+22.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -4.7 (+4.3) | 131.4 (+25.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -5.6 (+3.4) | 135.1 (+21.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -5.3 (+3.7) | 134.1 (+22.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | IDST 73 – 69 MONT |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MONT 69 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MONT 81 – 68 IDST |
| Jan 19, 2025 | IDST 86 – 62 MONT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MONT 72 – 58 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#150) | -4.6 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#168) | -1.29 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#161) | -1.17 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#131) | 0.423 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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