Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -400 UNCO +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -6.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.9 (+4.1) | 142.8 (+14.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -5.7 (+5.3) | 141.7 (+15.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -6.8 (+4.2) | 144.8 (+12.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -7.0 (+4.0) | 143.8 (+13.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 77.7 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#117) | -3.1 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#105) | -0.75 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#106) | -0.73 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#71) | 0.466 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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