They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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54–27 on winners spread MAE 10.7 81 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ohio @ Kentucky +10.7 153.7 84% 59–77 ✓
Auburn @ South Florida -1.0 124.2 46% 58–52 ✓
Marquette @ West Virginia +4.9 147.6 67% 82–71 ✗
Lehigh @ Merrimack +12.3 120.7 87% 45–55 ✓
Radford @ Furman +27.8 143.5 99% 64–81 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Robert Morris +16.2 135.2 93% 74–70 ✗
Idaho State @ Nebraska +7.4 135.8 75% 60–78 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Minnesota +17.3 139.3 94% 49–78 ✓
UMass Lowell @ George Washington +8.1 131.9 77% 67–56 ✗
George Mason @ James Madison -2.8 135.1 40% 64–67 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Fordham +13.8 127.8 90% 75–73 ✗
Coppin State @ Virginia +10.6 127.6 83% 52–68 ✓
Belmont @ Kennesaw State +1.1 148.7 54% 97–78 ✗
North Alabama @ Manhattan -5.0 136.4 33% 51–55 ✗
East Carolina @ Old Dominion -7.7 130.6 24% 73–60 ✓
Hampton @ Wofford +18.4 139.5 95% 60–77 ✓
Arkansas State @ Southeast Missouri State +16.5 174.6 93% 72–60 ✗
UMBC @ Western Carolina -0.8 141.6 47% 91–75 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Stephen F. Austin +0.7 128.7 52% 74–87 ✓
Niagara @ SIU Edwardsville -3.7 143.9 37% 70–60 ✓
Lafayette @ Duke +34.3 147.3 100% 55–88 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Memphis +27.9 154.7 99% 62–74 ✓
Oakland @ Alabama +5.2 140.7 68% 59–86 ✓
Southern @ South Dakota -0.5 140.2 48% 68–71 ✗
Florida International @ Green Bay -14.1 121.0 10% 63–60 ✓
Rice @ LSU New Orleans +8.1 140.1 77% 83–78 ✗
Southern Illinois @ Colorado +1.9 145.0 57% 67–63 ✗
Stetson @ Lamar +9.5 148.9 80% 60–59 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Northwestern State +8.9 145.1 79% 83–64 ✗
Bellarmine @ Gonzaga +22.4 157.2 98% 50–92 ✓
Ole Miss @ Elon -4.4 149.8 35% 74–56 ✓
Cal Poly @ Santa Clara +23.6 139.8 98% 57–87 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Georgia +12.0 126.2 86% 88–78 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ San Diego +8.7 145.1 79% 57–55 ✗
UTEP @ Pacific +6.7 139.1 73% 73–64 ✗
Wichita State @ Arizona +19.9 133.1 96% 78–82 ✓
Michigan @ UNLV -15.6 119.6 8% 74–61 ✓
Binghamton @ UConn +26.7 139.6 99% 63–87 ✓
Bryant @ Bethune-Cookman -7.3 155.3 25% 75–81 ✗
Monmouth @ Saint Joseph's -4.3 151.3 35% 87–75 ✓
Villanova @ Tennessee -1.9 165.2 43% 71–53 ✓
Stanford @ Baylor +18.4 143.3 95% 48–86 ✓
Richmond @ Drake +22.2 152.4 98% 70–73 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Quinnipiac +21.5 140.7 97% 65–76 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Youngstown State +13.5 146.3 89% 69–66 ✗
Howard @ High Point -5.1 156.7 32% 63–73 ✗
UCF @ Evansville -0.7 121.2 48% 75–59 ✓
Northern Arizona @ UT Rio Grande Valley -6.7 140.0 27% 89–87 ✓
Austin Peay @ Dayton +2.4 120.4 59% 87–81 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Louisville +11.6 141.1 85% 67–73 ✓
Canisius @ Cleveland State +6.0 130.0 71% 70–80 ✓
Rider @ Buffalo +19.2 157.6 96% 65–87 ✓
Holy Cross @ Air Force +2.6 126.2 59% 53–72 ✓
UT Martin @ Troy -2.3 143.4 42% 67–80 ✗
Utah Tech @ Cal State Northridge +6.1 140.2 71% 73–79 ✓
Bradley @ Brown +0.3 135.0 51% 62–65 ✓
Purdue @ North Carolina -13.2 165.1 12% 93–84 ✓
Montana State @ New Mexico +8.1 172.6 77% 78–81 ✓
UIC @ Loyola Chicago +28.6 151.5 100% 63–80 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware State +6.6 110.5 73% 67–63 ✗
Chattanooga @ VCU +0.7 106.8 52% 56–54 ✗
Army @ La Salle -5.3 156.3 32% 58–61 ✗
Chicago State @ UC Santa Barbara +17.2 129.0 94% 50–81 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Wake Forest +10.3 129.6 82% 63–87 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Central Arkansas -0.1 164.1 49% 67–70 ✗
Niagara @ St. Thomas +2.7 155.4 60% 67–76 ✓
Hampton @ Georgia Southern +10.8 126.5 84% 66–86 ✓
Radford @ Navy +4.7 129.2 67% 33–47 ✓
UMBC @ Longwood +18.4 130.4 95% 55–82 ✓
Georgia State @ William & Mary -12.9 158.3 12% 77–59 ✓
Mercer @ Saint Louis +19.7 147.9 96% 58–75 ✓
Texas Tech @ Incarnate Word -18.0 143.4 5% 84–62 ✓
Colgate @ Syracuse +13.7 141.5 89% 100–85 ✗
Utah @ Boston College -2.0 126.6 43% 68–61 ✓
VMI @ Marist +8.4 149.7 78% 74–78 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Michigan State +24.1 150.1 99% 59–83 ✓
Duquesne @ Colorado +12.0 140.4 86% 76–84 ✓
San José State @ Texas +17.3 138.9 94% 45–79 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ St. John's +34.2 149.8 100% 74–87 ✓
North Dakota @ Florida Atlantic +17.2 147.8 94% 79–98 ✓
Manhattan @ Liberty +11.3 127.3 85% 76–60 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.