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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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42–12 on winners spread MAE 11.0 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Bucknell @ Illinois State +14.5 159.8 91% 100–105 ✓
Western Carolina @ American University -1.4 152.9 45% 80–79 ✓
Tulsa @ Rhode Island +11.1 130.8 84% 77–71 ✗
UAlbany @ Eastern Kentucky +17.5 138.9 94% 64–77 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Alabama State +6.7 142.1 73% 74–80 ✓
Western Illinois @ DePaul +12.5 157.8 87% 80–84 ✓
Winthrop @ Vanderbilt +12.9 148.6 88% 63–77 ✓
Morgan State @ Portland +13.1 149.3 88% 63–74 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart -4.6 153.1 34% 71–61 ✓
Iona @ North Alabama -6.6 122.3 27% 81–65 ✓
Pepperdine @ UC Irvine +16.8 123.2 94% 48–82 ✓
Omaha @ Montana +0.1 140.7 50% 47–68 ✓
UC San Diego @ Sacramento State -4.5 140.0 34% 71–56 ✓
UT Arlington @ San Diego State +26.6 125.6 99% 62–68 ✓
Texas State @ Eastern Washington -3.8 149.7 36% 81–74 ✓
Temple @ Elon -0.8 139.0 47% 75–58 ✓
Green Bay @ Weber State +15.0 135.6 91% 58–68 ✓
Bryant @ Holy Cross -3.6 157.2 37% 78–62 ✓
Norfolk State @ Xavier +8.4 143.6 78% 48–88 ✓
Boston University @ Northern Illinois -12.1 117.8 13% 76–58 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Old Dominion -4.1 134.7 35% 71–63 ✓
Villanova @ Purdue -1.2 154.2 46% 74–80 ✗
Boise State @ Ole Miss -1.9 134.7 43% 60–50 ✓
St. Thomas @ SIU Edwardsville -4.9 148.0 33% 86–73 ✓
Georgia State @ High Point -0.5 151.2 48% 74–66 ✓
UT Martin @ North Dakota -3.8 149.8 37% 77–72 ✓
Ball State @ Massachusetts +4.5 168.3 66% 89–86 ✗
Air Force @ Bethune-Cookman -8.8 124.0 21% 73–65 ✓
Little Rock @ Sam Houston -9.0 135.5 21% 59–77 ✗
Utah State @ Oklahoma +4.1 148.8 65% 73–70 ✗
Tennessee State @ South Dakota +4.5 132.5 66% 66–83 ✓
Princeton @ Oregon State -2.6 137.4 41% 81–80 ✓
Navy @ Furman +16.5 144.6 93% 77–66 ✗
Alabama A&M @ UAB +16.6 159.5 93% 41–86 ✓
Morehead State @ Mississippi State +20.4 136.6 97% 46–66 ✓
Lamar @ Southern Miss -1.2 138.1 45% 75–82 ✗
Tennessee @ North Carolina -2.6 162.8 41% 89–72 ✓
Niagara @ Youngstown State +4.0 143.0 64% 58–53 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UTSA +1.5 145.7 55% 77–58 ✗
Western Carolina @ Longwood +25.2 157.3 99% 64–53 ✗
Jackson State @ Marshall +4.1 147.8 65% 66–80 ✓
Southern @ Nebraska +4.3 149.8 65% 59–82 ✓
Merrimack @ Virginia Tech +20.3 110.4 97% 43–72 ✓
Houston Christian @ Denver +19.7 130.1 96% 61–74 ✓
Howard @ William & Mary -14.6 150.0 9% 82–76 ✓
Clemson @ West Virginia -3.4 138.4 38% 59–66 ✗
Boston College @ Rhode Island -2.0 123.6 43% 65–71 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Wofford +3.0 137.3 61% 52–70 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Florida International +4.4 116.4 65% 71–74 ✓
Florida State @ Loyola Marymount -5.5 141.9 31% 73–45 ✓
Colorado State @ Creighton -0.1 141.1 50% 95–81 ✓
Davidson @ East Carolina -1.0 141.2 46% 76–67 ✓
Grambling @ Iowa State +15.0 129.6 91% 47–82 ✓
Texas Southern @ NC State +10.6 143.0 83% 57–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.