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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–16 on winners
spread MAE 12.0
33 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Bonaventure
@
Marquette
|
-0.8 | 143.9 | 47% | 70–54 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Tulsa
|
-13.5 | 135.8 | 11% | 72–58 | ✓ |
Louisiana
@
Indiana
|
+4.7 | 122.1 | 66% | 44–76 | ✓ |
Northeastern
@
Southern Illinois
|
+0.7 | 113.5 | 53% | 59–47 | ✗ |
Missouri
@
SMU
|
+11.1 | 134.5 | 84% | 80–75 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Miami
|
+8.7 | 136.6 | 79% | 59–86 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Indiana State
|
+3.1 | 144.5 | 61% | 80–66 | ✗ |
Michigan
@
Arizona
|
+10.4 | 144.2 | 83% | 62–80 | ✓ |
Northern Colorado
@
California Baptist
|
+2.8 | 137.4 | 60% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
UNLV
|
-11.6 | 122.9 | 15% | 74–73 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Little Rock
|
-2.3 | 133.6 | 42% | 60–67 | ✗ |
Evansville
@
Rice
|
+8.5 | 122.3 | 78% | 104–109 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Toledo
|
-2.7 | 141.5 | 40% | 86–98 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
James Madison
|
+0.7 | 135.4 | 52% | 74–69 | ✗ |
Bradley
@
Duquesne
|
-1.0 | 123.2 | 46% | 70–78 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Sam Houston
|
-11.8 | 127.3 | 14% | 72–59 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
Vermont
|
-1.7 | 114.8 | 44% | 63–61 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Wisconsin
|
+1.0 | 119.9 | 54% | 58–69 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
George Washington
|
+1.8 | 143.9 | 56% | 63–74 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Drexel
|
+1.6 | 130.7 | 56% | 90–87 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
Cal Poly
|
-11.2 | 116.2 | 15% | 75–72 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
UL Monroe
|
-3.0 | 150.6 | 39% | 66–96 | ✗ |
Brown
@
Colorado
|
+7.3 | 154.5 | 75% | 52–54 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Houston
|
+12.7 | 123.3 | 87% | 52–70 | ✓ |
Fordham
@
Akron
|
+9.0 | 136.4 | 79% | 63–43 | ✗ |
Idaho
@
Utah Valley
|
+20.0 | 157.1 | 97% | 45–83 | ✓ |
Murray State
@
East Tennessee State
|
-8.5 | 126.5 | 22% | 58–66 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Southern Illinois
|
+0.0 | 125.0 | 50% | 66–64 | ✗ |
Seton Hall
@
Ohio State
|
-12.9 | 142.8 | 12% | 76–79 | ✗ |
Loyola Marymount
@
SMU
|
+14.7 | 139.0 | 91% | 76–70 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Cincinnati
|
-7.8 | 133.4 | 24% | 51–71 | ✗ |
Cornell
@
Penn State
|
-0.8 | 138.6 | 47% | 74–85 | ✗ |
Sacred Heart
@
Stony Brook
|
+11.8 | 137.4 | 86% | 72–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.