If I had my time again / I would do it all the same. "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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60–36 on winners spread MAE 10.0 96 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Gonzaga @ Kentucky +0.1 145.9 44% 94–59 ✗
South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman +12.5 146.1 88% 59–80 ✓
NJIT @ High Point +22.1 149.8 91% 72–89 ✓
South Alabama @ East Tennessee State +7.8 141.1 74% 65–91 ✓
Samford @ VCU +20.0 147.0 91% 57–83 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Iona +5.3 156.0 74% 89–68 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Lafayette -2.3 128.2 33% 71–79 ✗
Bryant @ Brown +5.4 125.1 65% 56–75 ✓
Niagara @ Siena +10.3 129.0 86% 54–83 ✓
Canisius @ Saint Peter's +2.1 129.2 60% 57–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist +13.1 133.9 89% 56–64 ✓
Fairfield @ Manhattan -2.3 157.0 39% 66–70 ✗
East Texas A&M @ UConn +24.2 136.8 91% 59–83 ✓
UAB @ Drake +5.8 142.3 70% 74–69 ✗
Cincinnati @ Xavier +7.1 138.0 74% 74–79 ✓
Northwestern State @ McNeese +18.1 144.8 91% 54–92 ✓
Notre Dame @ TCU +10.7 138.4 81% 87–85 ✗
San Diego @ San José State +4.9 136.7 68% 69–86 ✓
Iowa State @ Purdue +6.3 155.3 69% 81–58 ✗
Duke @ Michigan State +3.1 134.7 52% 66–60 ✗
Monmouth @ Georgia Tech +5.7 141.1 71% 67–79 ✓
New Haven @ Boston College +11.8 126.5 84% 63–67 ✓
Rhode Island @ Providence +3.8 152.3 64% 71–90 ✓
Dayton @ Virginia +8.1 150.1 83% 73–86 ✓
Southern Miss @ Miami +17.4 146.6 88% 64–88 ✓
UMBC @ Bucknell +1.5 141.2 54% 73–66 ✗
Old Dominion @ Richmond +15.3 149.3 88% 77–86 ✓
Utah Valley @ Bowling Green +5.7 142.3 72% 82–71 ✗
Maine @ Miami (OH) +15.0 136.5 88% 61–93 ✓
UNC Asheville @ NC State +15.5 153.0 89% 63–75 ✓
Drexel @ La Salle +3.3 132.4 61% 64–69 ✓
Western Michigan @ SIU Edwardsville +8.1 136.9 78% 83–73 ✗
Norfolk State @ James Madison +4.9 135.0 72% 67–68 ✓
Delaware @ Delaware State -4.4 130.1 30% 72–75 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Winthrop +13.8 147.4 87% 88–84 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Gardner-Webb -6.9 150.8 23% 88–84 ✓
Morehead State @ Presbyterian +4.8 127.7 64% 72–80 ✓
Western Carolina @ South Carolina Upstate +8.7 145.5 80% 67–78 ✓
Ohio State @ Northwestern +2.9 146.6 63% 86–82 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ West Georgia +5.7 147.9 75% 87–59 ✗
Stetson @ South Carolina +18.4 143.5 91% 51–82 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida International +3.0 140.3 65% 65–88 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ American University +10.0 133.2 80% 60–78 ✓
Marquette @ Wisconsin +13.6 151.5 87% 76–96 ✓
Coppin State @ Liberty +21.8 147.6 91% 50–92 ✓
Boise State @ Butler +10.2 140.7 82% 77–68 ✗
Youngstown State @ IU Indianapolis -3.1 157.1 40% 78–55 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State -0.6 154.4 49% 71–59 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue Fort Wayne -1.8 149.2 39% 77–79 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Buffalo +4.7 140.4 69% 77–69 ✗
Stony Brook @ Duquesne +3.2 147.8 61% 75–84 ✓
Holy Cross @ Fordham +5.9 128.8 66% 70–69 ✗
Harvard @ Furman +5.8 138.3 71% 69–79 ✓
Indiana @ Louisville +3.9 149.1 65% 78–87 ✓
Princeton @ Loyola Chicago -0.4 132.5 42% 68–73 ✗
Georgia State @ Kennesaw State +12.0 149.6 86% 69–92 ✓
Idaho @ South Dakota State +4.3 140.0 69% 84–81 ✗
Toledo @ Oakland +6.3 157.6 76% 97–98 ✓
Missouri State @ Tulsa +19.3 143.5 91% 74–98 ✓
Bellarmine @ Murray State +16.5 155.7 88% 68–81 ✓
George Mason @ Virginia Tech +3.4 144.8 59% 62–73 ✓
Rutgers @ Michigan +21.5 144.6 91% 60–101 ✓
Fresno State @ Arkansas +17.2 148.3 88% 58–82 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ North Carolina Central -0.9 141.0 42% 69–54 ✓
Elon @ Wofford +4.7 159.0 72% 73–52 ✗
Marshall @ Ohio -0.1 148.5 46% 81–88 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Massachusetts +12.3 147.6 87% 60–80 ✓
Maryland @ Iowa +15.7 143.0 89% 64–83 ✓
Dartmouth @ Wyoming +20.8 148.5 90% 80–93 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Louisiana -9.1 126.6 16% 70–63 ✓
New Mexico State @ Abilene Christian -1.6 131.4 35% 69–77 ✗
Evansville @ Western Kentucky +16.2 147.2 89% 79–80 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ East Carolina +3.7 142.1 63% 82–78 ✗
Le Moyne @ Binghamton -0.3 146.0 44% 78–63 ✓
Akron @ Tulane -7.1 163.8 23% 88–71 ✓
Seton Hall @ Kansas State +1.8 142.3 58% 78–67 ✗
Longwood @ Morgan State +0.2 147.3 49% 84–80 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls -0.9 144.3 46% 67–74 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Temple +5.6 146.9 73% 70–69 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Chattanooga +1.5 146.2 55% 74–70 ✗
Baylor @ Memphis +0.2 154.0 47% 71–78 ✓
Omaha @ Portland State +11.2 149.2 85% 60–55 ✗
Vermont @ Pepperdine +0.5 145.4 50% 65–56 ✗
Southern Utah @ Oregon State +12.7 144.5 87% 70–81 ✓
Kansas City @ Eastern Washington +7.1 144.7 74% 66–90 ✓
Sam Houston @ Texas Southern -9.8 160.0 19% 82–70 ✓
Colorado @ Colorado State +4.7 150.6 63% 86–91 ✓
Pacific @ California +7.4 137.6 74% 61–67 ✓
Long Island University @ Lehigh +1.2 144.2 52% 87–82 ✗
UAlbany @ Columbia +18.5 141.4 90% 65–93 ✓
Washington @ USC +7.8 152.1 80% 84–76 ✗
Oregon @ UCLA +13.3 142.0 88% 63–74 ✓
Denver @ Idaho State +11.9 143.9 85% 79–93 ✓
Wake Forest @ West Virginia +0.5 134.8 51% 75–66 ✗
William & Mary @ George Washington +7.1 158.7 72% 86–99 ✓
Houston Christian @ New Orleans +6.5 140.4 76% 85–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.