Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | JMU -575 NORF +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +1 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -4.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -3.8 (-2.8) | 134.9 (+0.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -4.9 (-3.9) | 135.0 (+0.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -4.4 (-3.4) | 133.9 (+1.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -5.4 (-4.4) | 135.3 (-0.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | NORF 83 – 69 JMU |
| Nov 27, 2020 | NORF 83 – 73 JMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#204) | -1.5 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#161) | -1.12 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#163) | -1.55 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#169) | 0.452 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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