Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -225 HARV +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -6.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -7.8 (+2.2) | 137.3 (+10.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -5.8 (+4.2) | 138.3 (+9.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -5.6 (+4.4) | 139.9 (+8.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -5.9 (+4.1) | 137.7 (+10.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | FUR 77 – 63 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 17-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-4 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#174) | -2.0 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#155) | -0.96 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#179) | -1.93 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#101) | 0.445 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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