Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -425 MOST +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +24 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -24.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -17.2 (+6.8) | 141.5 (+30.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -19.3 (+4.7) | 143.5 (+28.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -19.9 (+4.1) | 143.6 (+28.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -20.7 (+3.3) | 141.7 (+30.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2024 | MOST 111 – 106 TLSA |
| Dec 16, 2023 | TLSA 73 – 72 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#49) | -8.4 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#28) | -1.47 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#29) | -1.94 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#15) | 0.377 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MOST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 21.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 44.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 35.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 61.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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