Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MOST +145 TLSA -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +5 | 217 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -9.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (+62.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -3.8 (+1.2) | 147.1 (+69.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -2.1 (+2.9) | 147.6 (+69.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -2.3 (+2.7) | 146.7 (+70.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | TLSA 98 – 74 MOST |
| Dec 16, 2023 | TLSA 73 – 72 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 6-12 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-9 |
| Away | 1-12 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#199) | -1.9 (#216) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#289) | 0.63 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#286) | 0.76 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#277) | 0.427 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 3.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 8.3% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 9.0% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 55.2% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 44.7% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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